My Hopes for Egypt

February 10, 2011

As I write this, things are changing by the moment in Egypt. The escalation of the protests. News that Mubarak is stepping down. His awaited speech and refusal to step down. And it keeps going. With the passions and the stakes raised higher and higher.

As an American Jew who lived in Cairo in 2006, I look at the unfolding events with somewhat different eyes than I would have before. When I receive an email from an Egyptian friend expressing her fears of a possible massacre against the protestors planned, after pro-Mubarak forces first tear into Tahrir Square attacking the protestors from  horses and camels, I feel her terror. When I look at the protestors’ faces I see in my mind the people I knew with college degrees and no jobs, as well as the lucky ones who struggle to put food on the table for their families, meeting frustration at every turn if they try to imagine a better life for themselves or their children. I see the demonstrators in Tahrir Square in 2006 in support of the Judges Movement, a protest movement that was brutally suppressed by this regime.

The explosion of this youth-led Egyptian Revolution has led many of us to feel more inspired and hopeful about the possibilities of real change in Egypt than ever before. And yet at the same time, there are serious reasons for apprehension and fear for Egypt’s future. The unleashing of decades’ worth of pent up anger and frustration of millions of people is a powerful force for change—and for chaos. United against a common enemy, it is relatively easy to contain and direct the passions of people. What comes next poses far greater dangers. We know that the process of moving toward a true constitutional democracy pose enormous challenges and inevitable disagreement over what is the best way forward. Who will be able to garner the support and trust of the people—and the army and the current power brokers—to guide this process?

The fears I hear expressed most are: what will this mean for Israel? what if the Brotherhood hijacks the Revolution? While these fears are real, I believe the risks of the current regime maintaining power—whether in the name of Mubarak or Suleiman or any other like-minded member of the regime—are even greater.

The young leaders who have been quietly guiding the protests, represent some of the best and the brightest of Egypt. They are young doctors, lawyers, engineers, and entrepreneurs who are well-educated, savvy, creative thinkers, and passionate in their desire for true democratic freedom and economic opportunities for themselves and their country. Many of them are non-ideological—they are not Islamist, communist, or socialist. They want to forge a way forward that includes the broadest spectrum of the Egyptian people possible. They may well represent the best hope for Egypt’s future.

If the Regime is allowed to maintain its grip on power, I fear that we will see a brutal crackdown on the leadership of this protest movement and once again, the strongest hopes for democratic change will be eliminated.

As in the past, the suppression of opposition voices now would effectively strengthen the Muslim Brotherhood as the only real alternative the government has been willing to allow to stand, even in its illegal status. This may be because of the Muslim Brotherhood’s usefulness: Mubarak’s government has successfully used the Brotherhood as a foil, convincing the Western world and Israel that we need his regime to keep the Muslim Brotherhood in its place.

What I saw close up when I lived in Egypt in 2006 is that Mubarak has done the same thing with his people in relation to Israel. Under Mubarak’s leadership, Egypt has maintained a peace treaty with Israel for three decades, and has served as a key ally both for Israel and the US in the Middle East, playing a critically important role between Israelis and Palestinians and in the American fight against terror. At the same time, Mubarak has also played to his people’s fears of Israel and has consistently exploited them to deflect attention from the failures of his own regime. Living in Egypt in 2006, I saw Israel attacked on a daily basis in the state-controlled press and television. Egyptians we knew in Cairo were afraid to be seen with an Israeli or walking into the Israeli Academic Center, and certainly travelling to Israel, for fear of being noticed by the Egyptian authorities and regarded as suspect.

We cannot minimize the risks ahead with the possible fall of this government. The implications for Israel and the whole region, for the US and the world, are enormous—and unclear. The risks are great. But again, the risks may be even greater if Mubarak’s government stays in place.

One of my friends in Egypt last week said that the protests and its leaders have brought out the best in people. May this continue to characterize the protestors’ actions and may the deep hunger for freedom that has found its voice among millions of Egyptians succeed in reaching its goals for a new Egypt, worthy of its people.