Can Egypt Lead the Way?

In April, 2006, when we were living in Cairo, Egyptians took to the streets in support of the relatively new “Judges Movement.” Hundreds of pro-reform judges were demanding that the country’s judiciary be granted independence so it could function with integrity in matters such as supervising free elections. When two leading figures of the Judges Movement were threatened with disciplinary hearings and possible disbarring, hundreds of Egyptians joined protest demonstrations in Cairo and Alexandria. Each demonstration was met with more riot police and more beatings and arrests. But with each demonstration, increasing numbers of Egyptians took to the streets and the hopes that the Judges Movement could make a difference grew.

I found my own hopes stirred by an opinion piece by Rami G. Khouri, in The Daily Star, the Lebanon-based independent English daily that is read all over the Middle East. Khouri argued that if the judges persisted in their demands, it might well prove the impetus for change Egyptians had been waiting for. The high respect Egyptians had for judges and the fact that the principles being championed by the judges were key to the political reforms so many Egyptians hungered for, combined to create a potentially large following for the Judges Movement.

Khouri claimed the Judges Movement could have an impact well beyond Egypt. Every important political trend in the modern Arab world had started in Egypt and then spread, he noted, from anti-colonial resistance to nationalism to pan-Arabism to the Muslim Brotherhood and modern Islamist politics. He noted that because of Egypt’s more recent “slide into authoritarianism, mediocrity and marginality,” its leadership role in the Arab world was sometimes forgotten, but it could still reassert itself. Khouri expressed the hope that like Poland’s independent trade union Solidarity in 1980, the Judges Movement could easily become the rallying point for the nation and send out ripple effects beyond the country’s borders through the entire region. Khouri’s arguments were persuasive and inspiring.

In the end, the regime put down the Judges Movement with a display of brutal force. Not thousands but tens of thousands of riot police greeted the hundreds of demonstrators trying to gather in Tahrir Square on May 18, beating civilians and foreign journalists alike, and arresting hundreds. The high hopes that had been kindled were snuffed out, at least for the immediate present.

Now these hopes have been not only rekindled, but with the dramatic initial successes of the protestors, transformed into even greater hopes for the Egyptian people.

Rami Khouri has been closely following and writing about the events unfolding in Egypt. Again, he points to the potential for the events in Egypt to point the way forward for the whole region. He notes the truly historic achievements already attained by the young Egyptian protestors in Tahrir Square, who launched “the first significant process of national self-determination by an Arab citizenry demanding to define its own national values, governance system, and policies -- perhaps the first time since the birth of the modern Arab state system.” If this revolution proves a success, Khouri argues, it will not only change the internal reality for Egyptians, but will restore Egypt to “the epicenter of Arab identity, ideology, activism—and pride.”

At the time of this writing, the world is watching as the ripples from Tunisia and Egypt continue to spread and tens of thousands of protestors take to the streets in Bahrain, Jordan, Iran, Yemen, and Libya. Forced to stand up to far greater violence, the protestors in these countries are refusing to cave in, clearly inspired by the success of non-violent protest at Tahrir Square. Even in Libya, where the uprisings have met with the most violent response, demonstrations continue to spread and have now reached the capital, Tripoli. And the ripple effects have now spread even to Morocco, where thousands of people have taken to the streets calling not for revolution or regime change, but for serious reforms.

But ripple effects can move both ways. Egypt is not immune from the impact of events in Libya, Iran, Bahrain, and Yemen. If Qadaffi manages to stay in power by suppressing with brutal force the protest movement that has been gaining momentum in Libya, this may well influence future choices made by leaders of the Egyptian military. And with every victory of non-violent protest, Egyptians intent on moving toward democracy will be strengthened in their resolve, and the Egyptian military leaders may well be more motivated to negotiate meaningful government change. How events play out in each of these countries will carry ripple effects beyond their own borders into Egypt.

The process of political change is beginning to move forward in Egypt. There have some positive signs such as meetings between the leaders of Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces with some of the Opposition leaders. But the Emergency Law is still in place, and several hundred Egyptians who disappeared during the protests are still not accounted for.

And Egyptians are moving forward with the process of amending their constitution. They are  considering what changes need to be made even before elections to begin to restructure their government in ways that will provide checks on political and economic power, and eliminate the kinds of corruption that have crippled Egypt’s efforts to provide real opportunities to all its citizens. Most of this work will not be as visible day to day as the tens of thousands of protestors in Tahrir Square. But this is the work with which Egypt can provide lasting hope to millions—not only its own citizens but those of the entire region and the world.